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Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota into portions of northern
Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141936Z - 142130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms including a few supercells may
develop near a surface low moving northeastward toward the
international border. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary
threats though a tornado or two is also possible. A weather watch is
being considered.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, lightning has increased within a
cluster of mostly disorganized thunderstorms along and to the east
of an advancing occluded front. Associated with the rapidly
progressing surface low farther south, the uptick in convection
suggests inhibition is weakening rapidly this afternoon. Likely in
response to increasing forcing for ascent and strong diurnal
heating, inhibition should continue to weaken to the point that
additional storms develop in proximity to the triple point in the
next couple of hours. With surface dewpoints south of the warm front
in the upper 60s to low 70s F, the warming temperatures are
supporting 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE along with 50-60 kt of effective
shear. The CAPE/shear space will support organized storms including
the potential for supercells, especially along the warm front where
low-level flow is heavily backed.  Hi-res guidance suggests surface
based storms should gradually evolve from 20-22z as the front lifts
quickly north toward the international border. Hail and damaging
wind gusts appear to be the most dominant threats through late
afternoon. While less certain, area VADs do show strong veering in
the low-levels especially near the warm front. The potential for
supercells to interact with enhanced vertical vorticity along the
warm front suggests some potential for a couple tornadoes with the
more discrete storms prior to crossing into southern MB. Given the
increasing severe potential, a weather watch is possible in the next
couple of hours.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   48669292 48169275 47849281 47089408 46819479 46779527
            46799623 46839671 47419751 47459755 47969794 48749847
            49049858 49089657 49119532 49499516 49429474 48909458
            48729386 48699343 48709309 48669292