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Mesoscale Discussion 1152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Areas affected...Northern IN...southern Lower MI...and far northwest
OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

Valid 140105Z - 140230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading southward across
portions of northern IN, southern Lower MI, and far northwest OH
this evening. A local spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
356 could eventually be warranted in parts of north-central IN.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection consisting of multiple different
modes will advance southward from southern Lower MI into northern IN
and northwest OH this evening. Over far northwest IN, a persistent
supercell cluster will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts,
though a tornado cannot be ruled out owing to modest low-level
hodograph curvature and related streamwise vorticity amid recovered
surface-based inflow. 

Farther east over northeast IN/south-central Lower Michigan, a
bowing segment is moving southeastward at around 40 kt, which has
produced 65-75 mph gusts. Between these two areas of convection, a
feed of high theta-e air (upper 70s dewpoints and lower 90s
temperatures) are supporting deepening updrafts along a
consolidating cold pool along the IN/Lower MI border. 55-65 kt of
effective bulk shear oriented oblique to the consolidating cold pool
could favor additional organization/upscale growth with southward
extent -- especially given the strong surface-based instability
downstream. 

Current thinking is that this activity will continue tracking
south/southeastward this evening, and a spatial extension of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 356 could eventually be warranted.

..Weinman.. 06/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   42138494 42058386 41728367 41288374 40878406 40598480
            40548602 40638688 41078750 41588767 41808754 41928672
            42138494