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Mesoscale Discussion 1132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...far southeastern
Wyoming...and western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 122027Z - 122230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity as high-based storms move eastward into a more
moist/unstable environment later this afternoon and evening across
northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska.  These storms will pose
a threat of large hail and damaging winds, so a severe thunderstorm
watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is apparent in satellite imagery
from northern New Mexico into southern Wyoming, resulting in an
increasing cumulus field and isolated thunderstorm development east
of Denver.  As the convection shifts eastward into a more moist and
unstable environment, the coverage and intensity of thunderstorms
are expected to increase.  Given an environment characterized by
over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 knots of effective-layer bulk
shear (stronger to the north), the initial storms may have supercell
characteristics with a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

As the number of storms increases, merging outflows (aided by
evaporative effects of high-based storms) should result in one or
more eastward moving clusters over northeastern Colorado and the
Nebraska Panhandle, posing a primary of severe damaging winds this
evening.

..Jirak/Guyer.. 06/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39430372 40150430 41310439 42170466 42760434 43010365
            43000261 42700192 42120140 41500119 40750137 40090178
            39750242 39470291 39470291 39430372