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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENH RISK AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible
across the northern High Plains and the lower Missouri Valley
region. Damaging winds and hail will be most likely; although, an
isolated tornado or two remains possible over the lower Missouri
Valley and vicinity.

...01z Update...

Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a possible weak disturbance
digging southeast across the mid MO Valley. Several long-lived
supercell clusters have evolved ahead of this weak feature and
currently extend from northeast KS into northern MO. Seasonally
strong instability axis currently extends across eastern OK into
northeast KS. The ongoing convection will likely dig south-southeast
along the eastern gradient of this buoyancy reservoir, along the
edge of a pronounced cap and zone of stronger subsidence. While LLJ
is not particularly noteworthy, southwesterly flow at 850mb should
increase to near 20kt across eastern KS/western MO this evening
which should provide some inflow for thunderstorm clusters to
propagate toward southwestern MO. Hail and wind remain the primary
concern, though an isolated tornado or two still remains possible
with stronger rotations.

Upstream across the northern High Plains, at least three discrete
supercells have matured across southeast MT near the WY border. This
activity will soon top the ridge and begin to turn more southeast
into the Black Hills region where an axis of higher instability will
remain in place for this activity to ingest. Latest guidance suggest
30kt southeasterly LLJ will increase across the NE Panhandle into
western SD which will encourage propagation toward the central High
Plains later tonight. Hail/wind should remain co*mon with these
storms.

..Darrow.. 06/12/2022