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Mesoscale Discussion 1120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Areas affected...Southeast MT...Northwest SD...Extreme northeast WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112219Z - 112345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and isolated hail is
expected to increase into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster is gradually intensifying across
southeast MT as of 22Z, in conjunction with a midlevel shortwave
trough that is cresting the upper ridge across the northern Rockies.
Downstream MLCAPE is rather weak (generally in the 400-800 J/kg
range), but strong mid/upper-level flow will support very favorable
deep-layer shear across the region into the evening. With time, one
or more organized clusters are expected to evolve and move
east-southeastward, with some potential for embedded supercells. In
the short term, isolated severe gusts and marginal hail will be the
primary threats. A somewhat greater threat for severe wind gusts is
expected to evolve this evening as storms continue to intensify and
move toward northwest SD, especially if an organized linear mode can
be sustained. Watch issuance is possible by 00Z in order to cover
these threats.

..Dean/Thompson.. 06/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   46370713 45880398 45540244 45070183 44660188 44500261
            44510350 44630438 44870541 45140646 45210684 45530762
            45920789 46370713