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Mesoscale Discussion 1119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Areas affected...eastern Kansas into western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 112214Z - 120045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A significant damaging wind threat may develop this
evening as storms evolve southward out of Nebraska. Embedded large
hail may also occur.

DISCUSSION...Rapid development is occurring over southeast Nebraska
near the surface trough, with a group of supercells ongoing. Very
large hail and even a tornado remain possible in the near term with
these cells. 

With time, these storms are expected to merge as outflow production
increases, resulting in a severe MCS. Damaging gusts over 75 mph
will be possible given extreme instability in place and favorable
northwest flow regime. MUCAPE is over 5000 J/kg across much of KS,
with favorable southerly storm-relative inflow to support a
forward-propagating MCS.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...to*...ICT...

LAT...LON   40579710 40399666 40269639 39979527 39699450 39579435
            39209408 38359404 37779471 37809589 37899671 38219741
            38769767 39759736 40579710