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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Large hail and
damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough should move slowly eastward across the eastern
states on Saturday, while an anticyclone remains centered over the
southern High Plains and Southwest. A belt of enhanced mid-level
flow is forecast to be present over much of the northern tier of the
CONUS from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
At the surface, rich low-level moisture should be in place over much
of the Plains along/east of a surface trough/dryline. Multiple weak
low pressure areas are forecast along the length of the High Plains
from the Dakotas to western KS.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
On the northern periphery of the upper ridge/anticyclone, multiple
low-amplitude, mid-level perturbations should advance from the
northern Rockies across the northern High Plains and into the Upper
Midwest through the period. Sufficient low-level moisture should be
present ahead of a weak front across the northern Plains to support
surface-based convection. Most guidance shows thunderstorms that
initially develop over the higher terrain of southern MT/northern WY
Saturday afternoon will move quickly east-southeastward across SD
and eventually NE Saturday evening/night. Even though instability
may remain fairly limited across this region, deep-layer shear will
be strong enough to support supercells. Accordingly, both isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with any supercell
that can be maintained in this corridor.

Another weak mid-level perturbation should also move across parts of
the Upper Midwest through Saturday afternoon. Moderate to locally
strong instability may develop in a narrow corridor from portions of
IA into southern MN by peak afternoon heating as rich low-level
advances northward ahead of a weak front. Although large-scale
ascent aloft will remain fairly weak, it appears possible that
isolated thunderstorms may develop across some part of southern MN
into IA Saturday afternoon. If convection can form, it would likely
beco*e organized, as west-northwesterly flow strengthens with height
through mid/upper levels. Both large hail and damaging winds appear
possible with this activity, although considerable uncertainty
remains regarding convective coverage and placement.

...Southeast into Virginia...
An upper trough will remain over much of the East Coast on Saturday.
The strongest large-scale ascent is forecast to shift over the
Atlantic through the day, but sufficient low-level moisture should
be in place along/ahead of a surface boundary to support isolated
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. There is still a fair amount of
spread in guidance regarding potential destabilization and
corresponding thunderstorm intensity from GA into NC/SC and VA.
While gusty winds may occur with the strongest cores that can
develop, at this point the potential for organized severe convection
appears too uncertain to include low severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 06/10/2022