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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and potentially
intense damaging gusts are expected this afternoon and tonight
across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments, no appreciable changes to the
outlook appear to be necessary at this time.  The current reasoning
and expectations described in prior outlooks remains consistent with
both current convective evolution, and expectations for additional
development this afternoon and evening.  

Two areas of development continue to be apparent -- one ongoing now
across the southeastern quarter of Colorado and into northeastern
New Mexico (which should expand east-southeastward with time), and
future initiation along the cold front from portions of northern
Nebraska southwestward into the northeastern Colorado/northwestern
Kansas vicinity.  This convection should spread south-southeastward
across Nebraska and Kansas overnight, possibly interacting with the
aforementioned Colorado/New Mexico convection as it crosses the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into the western and central Oklahoma
vicinity tonight.  Large hail will be possible with initial storm
development in both of these areas, with risk transition more toward
strong/damaging winds as upscale growth occurs into the evening.

..Goss.. 06/09/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022/

...Central/southern Great Plains...
After a one-day reprieve, another fairly active severe-weather day
is expected later this afternoon and tonight, with a probable
genesis across the central High Plains and near/more so east of the
Front Range as well as in South Dakota/Nebraska, including a likely
culmination of one or more southeastward-moving regional MCSs
tonight across south-central Nebraska/Kansas and western
Oklahoma/northwest Texas.

Morning upper-air/surface analysis features an axis of moderate
low-level (particularly with the lowest 0.5-1 km AGL) moisture
extending from the middle part of Texas northwestward into the Texas
Panhandle (12z Amarillo 11.6 g/kg mean mixing ratio) and the central
High Plains. Somewhat more modest quality is on the northward extent
into the central High Plains, related to an 8.2C 850 mb dewpoint and
8.2 g/kg mean mixing ratio as per the 12z North Platte observed
sounding. This more modest moisture coincides with moderately
stronger mid/high-level west-northwesterly winds that extend from
the northern Rockies toward the north-central Plains/Upper Midwest,
with Interstate 70 as a rough latitudinal delineation of 40+ kt
mid-level winds (near and to its north). 

Mid-level speed max and subtle perturbation over eastern Wyoming
this morning should semi-directly influence downstream areas
including Nebraska/eastern Colorado into western/northern Kansas by
late afternoon. Multiple corridors of increasing and intensifying
boundary layer-rooted thunderstorm development are anticipated by
around mid-afternoon. This includes near a weak triple point
vicinity across north-central/west-central Nebraska and
south-central South Dakota, as well as near the surface low/trough
vicinity and orographically influenced areas of eastern Colorado
southward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity.

A co*bination of vertically veering wind profiles and stronger flow
aloft (especially with northward extent) in conjunction with steep
lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support initial supercells across
much of the aforementioned corridor. Large hail is possible, along
with a tornado or two particularly during the early evening. Current
thinking is that storms will grow upscale this evening, with
multiple south/southeastward-moving MCSs potentially evolving. This
could include an increased damaging wind potential from
south-central Nebraska southward into north-central/central Kansas,
as well as southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and northwest
Texas/Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma tonight. The potential
for one or more corridors of Enhanced Risk upgrade may still be
warranted in subsequent Outlook(s).

...Middle Gulf Coast/Southeast States...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
cold front from Louisiana into the Carolinas. Weak winds aloft will
limit convective organization, but a few storms will be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts during the mid/late afternoon through
early evening hours.