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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with an acco*panying damaging wind risk are
expected across parts of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley
and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Friday.

...Synopsis...
While ridging aloft prevails over much of the West, a short-wave
trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the Mississippi,
Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys during the day, in northwesterly
cyclonic flow on the back side of an eastern North America upper
low/trough.  

At the surface, a seasonably weak/rather diffuse patter is expected.
General low pressure is forecast across the
south-central/southeastern states, where the primary severe-weather
risk is apparent.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas southeastward to the central Gulf Coast
region...
While various CAM runs differ somewhat substantially in terms of
initial location, and subsequent development/propagation, general
agreement exists that an MCS will be ongoing/evolving at the start
of the period, moving out of the eastern Oklahoma vicinity into
Arkansas.  

With moderately strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and a westerly
low-level jet over eastern Texas expected, east-southeastward to
southeastward motion of the MCS is expected, with some potential for
backbuilding on the western flank.  As the moist downstream airmass
heats/destabilizes through the day, this MCS will likely be
maintained in a well-organized manner through the afternoon hours,
with some models suggesting that convection -- and associated severe
potential -- may reach the central Gulf Coast by early evening.

Given increased confidence in the existence of this convective
cluster, and at least some overlap in various model solutions in
terms of areal coverage, an upgrade to ENH risk -- and 30% wind --
is being introduced at this time, as damaging wind gusts appear
likely with these storms.

...Eastern Kansas/Missouri...
Some risk for severe weather may occur in the wake of the
anticipated/southeastward-moving MCS which should be ongoing at the
start of the period to the south of this area.  Models differ as to
whether new convective development will occur, with subsidence in
the wake of the MCS possibly hindering development.

Still, a moist low-level airmass will remain in place as the upper
short-wave trough digs southeastward across Missouri/eastern Kansas
during the morning and afternoon, along with flow aloft sufficient
to support organized storms.  Given the uncertainty with respect to
development, will introduce conditional 5%/MRGL risk across this
area, to hint at the potential for storm redevelopment in the wake
of the convective activity ongoing to the south.  Any storms which
do develop would likely shift southeastward with time, acco*panied
by potential for locally damaging wind gusts and hail, through the
afternoon hours.

..Goss.. 06/09/2022