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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 AM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ISSUE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and potentially
intense damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon into tonight
across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...NE/KS/MO/OK...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper trough and associated mid
level speed max rotating across parts of MT/WY.  This feature will
track eastward into NE this afternoon, where dewpoints near 60F will
yield a corridor of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg.  Mid-level capping should
limit strong convection until late afternoon, when at least isolated
thunderstorm development is expected across parts of
western/southern NE and northern KS.  Large hail will likely be the
main threat from the initial storms.  This activity will build
southward down the instability gradient over KS through the evening
and into northeast OK overnight while growing upscale, with the
potential for one or more bowing co*plexes capable of damaging
winds.  Portions of this area may need an upgrade to ENH in later
outlooks as the corridor of greatest risk beco*es more apparent.

...c*/NM/TX/OK...
Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form
over/along the mountains of southeastern CO and northeast WY.  This
is beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwesterly flow
aloft.  Overnight CAM solutions suggest that this activity will
slowly intensify and organize through the early evening as it
spreads into the TX Panhandle, with an increasing risk of damaging
winds and hail.  Given the reservoir of rich low-level moisture and
strong CAPE that will be present over OK, it is likely that these
storms will persist through the night and track east-southeastward
across portions of OK and north TX.  Mid-level winds are only
marginally strong, lessening the confidence of a long-lived severe
event.  However, the potential exists for an upgrade to ENH for this
MCS as well.

...Gulf Coast into Southeast States...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
cold front from LA into the Carolinas.  Weak winds aloft will limit
convective organization, but a few cells in this area will be
capable of locally damaging wind gusts during the late afternoon and
early evening.

..Hart.. 06/09/2022