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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Sat-Mon -- Central/Northern Plains...
Zonal upper level flow will prevail for much of Days 4-5/Sat-Sun
across the middle part of the U.S. Strong westerly flow will extend
from the northern Rockies to the upper Great Lakes during this time.
An upper anticyclone will be centered over the southern Plains.
Surface low pressure developing over the central High Plains
vicinity in response to a developing upper trough over the western
U.S. will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to develop northward
across the mid/upper MS Valley and into parts of the
central/northern Plains. Some severe potential may develop on Day
5/Sun across western portions of the central/northern Plains along a
surface trough in moist upslope flow. However, large scale ascent
appears weak and storm coverage is uncertain at this time.

Severe potential may continue across the region on Day 6/Mon as the
western upper trough begins to eject eastward and strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow overspreads a moist and unstable environment.
However, the intensity of the trough and timing of its eastward
progression vary considerably in forecast guidance. Furthermore, run
to run model consistency has been poor, resulting in low
predictability.

...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed -- Great Lakes/Midwest Vicinity...

As the western upper trough progresses eastward, some severe threat
could develop across parts of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes
vicinity late in the period. Large inconsistencies continue among
various forecast guidance during this time, mainly with regards to
the timing of the ejection of the upper trough. While severe
potential is possible from the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes,
predictability and forecast confidence remain too low to include
probabilities at this time.