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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday
from the Arkansas vicinity eastward across the mid
Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the central and southern
Appalachians.

...Arkansas/southeastern Missouri eastward to the central and
southern Appalachians...
An MCS may be ongoing across portions of Oklahoma/Arkansas during
the morning, which should spread eastward with time.  Meanwhile, a
cold front is forecast to shift eastward/southeastward across the
Midwest through the day.  Models differ substantially in terms of
convective evolution across this broad area,  as the airmass
destabilizes through the day ahead of the cold front, and south of a
warm front progged to extend west-to-east north of the Ohio River. 
In general, two main corridors of greater convective coverage are
anticipated -- across the Tennessee Valley vicinity as the remnant
MCS progresses eastward and possibly reintensifies through the day,
and then across the Ohio Valley area ahead of the cold front.

Despite uncertainty regarding locations of greatest risk, a broad
zone of moderately strong deep-layer flow will spread across the
region, in tandem with the advancing mid-level short-wave trough. 
As such, likelihood for some storm organization -- and attendant
risks for locally damaging winds and hail are sufficient to warrant
broad slight risk upgrade.  Storms -- and at least some severe risk
-- will likely continue into the evening, particularly across the
northern, cold-frontal convective corridor as storms reach the
central Appalachians late.

...Virginia and the Delmarva area southward across the Carolinas...
Scattered to isolated storms are forecast to develop during the
afternoon, in tandem with afternoon heating/destabilization.  Modest
deep-layer flow across the area will limit potential for
well-organized convection, but a few instances of gusty winds, or
perhaps marginal hail, will be possible into the early evening
hours.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong destabilization is forecast across the southern High Plains
through peak heating, which will fuel storm development over the
higher terrain across southeastern Colorado, the eastern half of New
Mexico, and into far West Texas.  While high-level flow should
remain weak, suggestive of generally disorganized/short-lived
updrafts, a deep mixed layer beneath strong CAPE will likely support
locally robust cells.  Locally damaging wind gusts -- aided by
sub-cloud evaporation -- will be the main risk, particularly if a
cluster or two can evolve through late afternoon and evening.

..Goss.. 06/07/2022