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Mesoscale Discussion 1053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far northern KY into IN/OH and far
southeastern Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061935Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may
persist this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Multiple small clusters and cells are ongoing this
afternoon from far northern KY into central/eastern IN and parts of
OH. Once such cluster produced a couple of damaging wind reports
across southwestern OH earlier today before weakening. Around
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present across these areas owing to
modest diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass.
Mid-level west-southwesterly winds are not overly strong at the
moment, with slightly greater flow present with northward extent
across IN/OH and far southeastern Lower MI. Still, around 25-35 kt
of effective bulk shear is contributing to modest organization with
the ongoing convection. Strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of
producing occasional damage should continue to be the main threat
with this activity as it spreads northeastward through the rest of
the afternoon. The most organized cluster is presently over far
northern KY and southeastern IN, moving into southwestern OH. The
eastern extent of the severe threat will be constrained by rapidly
decreasing instability in eastern OH. Current expectations are for
the overall wind threat to remain fairly isolated over the next few
hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   38528480 38938501 39228551 39088686 39298708 39658707
            40148692 40588652 41368566 41818448 41998398 42168364
            42348330 42328303 42208307 41938307 41678280 41538196
            41498177 40938172 40158205 39238267 38668399 38528480