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Mesoscale Discussion 1051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061736Z - 061930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A somewhat organized convective cluster may linger into
the mid afternoon hours and pose a hail/wind risk. This activity
will likely remain relatively isolated, negating the need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms moving across western to
central IA has shown indications of intensification and perhaps
better organization (including a broad mesocyclone/weak MCV) over
the past hour. This is likely in response to increasing MLCAPE as
temperature warm into the upper 70s amid mid-60s dewpoints on the
warm side of a weak cold front. This intensification trend is not
only noted in KDMX imagery, but also apparent via steadily cooling
cloud top temperatures in GOES IR imagery and increasing lightning
counts. Although central IA remains on the fringe of stronger
mid/upper-level flow, 30-35 knots in the 7-9 km layer sampled by the
KDMX VWP suggests that deep-layer shear is adequate to support some
storm organization. The expectation is for this cluster to persist,
and perhaps undergo slight intensification, as it propagates along
the surface boundary to the east/southeast with a severe hail/wind
threat. This threat will most likely remain confined to portions of
central IA, limiting the need for a broader watch.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...

LAT...LON   41479481 41699459 41769400 41739303 41679263 41309258
            40819287 40639346 40629416 40899465 41179480 41479481