Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail
will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on
Tuesday.

...Central Plains and vicinity...
A short-wave trough -- and an associated mid-level jet streak -- are
progged to shift east-southeastward out of the Rockies and into the
central Plains.  Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow -- aided by
weak cyclogenesis over the central High Plains -- will help maintain
a moist low-level airmass near and south of a warm front expected to
extend eastward across southern Nebraska.

As diurnal heating maximizes through the afternoon, moderate
instability is forecast to develop across the central and southern
High Plains, and eastward across Kansas and southern Nebraska. 
Storm initiation is expected to occur initially over the higher
terrain near the Front Range, and in upslope flow just north of the
warm front across the southwestern South Dakota vicinity.

At this time, it appears that two clusters of severe storms will
evolve, one shifting southeastward across Nebraska and northern
Kansas, and the other moving out of eastern Colorado and
northeastern New Mexico into western Kansas, and the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles.  Strong capping with southward extent into the southern
High Plains should limit southward development in the Texas
Panhandle, but a few supercells are expected to evolve across
eastern Colorado and into western Kansas and the Panhandles,
acco*panied by very large hail and potential for locally damaging
winds.

Farther to the north, across the Nebraska/Kansas area, storms are
initially expected to remain supercellular, aided by the strong 60
kt mid-level westerlies atop the low-level southeasterly flow. 
Along with potential for very large hail, a couple of tornadoes will
be possible -- particularly near the evolving/weak surface low and
associated warm front in the southern Nebraska vicinity.  With time,
storms should grow upscale to some degree, increasing the potential
for locally damaging winds as storms spread east-southeastward
toward northwestern Missouri into late evening.

...Central and southern Appalachians and Tennessee/Ohio/Mid
Mississippi Valleys west to eastern Oklahoma...
A cluster of thunderstorms/MCS appears likely to be moving across
Oklahoma toward Arkansas early in the period, and may persist
eastward, redeveloping in the vicinity of the MCV through the day
into the Tennessee Valley.  Risk for locally gusty winds and hail
may acco*pany stronger storms within this cluster.  

During the afternoon, isolated storm development is expected across
the southern Appalachians area where a moist/destabilizing airmass
is expected.  Locally gusty winds, and possibly marginal hail, will
be possible with a couple of the strongest updrafts.

Meanwhile, a cold front moving eastward across the Midwest will
likely focus afternoon storm development across Ohio/southern
Indiana and Kentucky, and then spreading eastward into New York and
western Pennsylvania.  Modest instability -- particularly with
northeastward extent into New York -- will likely limit overall
severe risk, but ample shear suggests that a few severe storms can
be expected, before convection diminishes during the evening.

..Goss.. 06/06/2022