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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail
will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on
Tuesday.

...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity...

The overall mid/upper pattern will not change much on Tuesday.
Quasi-zonal flow will persist across much of the CONUS with weak
midlevel shortwave impulses ejecting across the Plains into the
Midwest. A weak surface low is forecast to track across SD or NE and
a frontal boundary will sag southward across the central Plains
during the afternoon into the overnight hours. Low-level
south/southeasterly flow ahead of this feature will maintain a moist
boundary-layer across parts of northeast NM/southeast CO eastward
into TX/OK/KS/NE. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
by afternoon in a moderately unstable and modestly sheared
environment, supporting supercells capable of large hail and
damaging gusts. The eastward extent of severe potential is unclear
given multiple rounds of convection across parts of OK/KS leading
into the Day 2 period. Some upscale development into southeastward
propagating clusters or another MCS will be possible, but again,
exactly where this develops remains uncertain and dependent on prior
days convective evolution.

...Ozarks to the Mid-South Vicinity...

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing somewhere across eastern KS/OK
into the Ozarks Tuesday morning, but where this activity is located
will depend on the overnight evolution of convection from the Day 1
period. A possible MCV will migrate east and influence thunderstorm
development through the day. It is unclear how much destabilization
will occur ahead of this feature, and heavy rain may be the
predominant hazard. However, if enough destabilization occurs,
sporadic damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2022