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Mesoscale Discussion 1038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Washington...eastern Oregon...and western
Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051857Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
through the remainder of the afternoon and may pose a damaging
wind/large hail risk. This threat will likely remain too localized
to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity mosaics show a few thunderstorms
beginning to intensify across eastern WA and along the OR/ID border.
This co*es as lift associated with the approach of an upper low and
within the left-exit region of a nearly zonal upper-level jet
overspreads the region. Cool temperatures aloft co*bined with
diurnal warming have bolstered MLCAPE values to around 500 J/kg. In
co*bination with the aforementioned lift, this is supporting the
recent uptick in thunderstorm activity. Further destabilization is
expected heading into the afternoon, and will allow for deeper
parcel trajectories and greater utilization of the stronger flow
aloft. Consequently, the potential for storm organization should
increase through the day. Isolated to widely scattered discrete
cells may take on supercell characteristics and and pose a hail/wind
threat. Latest hi-res guidance suggests that this threat will likely
be maximized between 20-23 UTC across the WA/OR/ID region. However,
storm coverage will likely remain isolated to widely scattered given
no mesoscale features to focus ascent, and precludes watch issuance.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   43421922 45151970 46761907 47911794 47981631 47671583
            46081609 44481575 43221524 42491546 42041638 42221758
            42741844 43421922