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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and
vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051739Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A small cluster of persistent/ongoing storms will pose
local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts over the next couple
of hours.  While WW is not expected at this time, we will continue
to monitor evolution, given favorable downstream thermodynamic
environment.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a persistent cluster of storms
-- the remnant of an overnight MCS -- moving quickly southeastward
at around 35 kt across parts of southeaster Oklahoma. 
South-southeasterly low-level inflow, beneath moderate northwesterly
flow aloft, will continue to favor southeastward
movement/propagation.

Ahead of the storms, clear skies/ongoing heating have co*bined with
near 70 surface dewpoints to permit ongoing destabilization, with
mixed-layer CAPE now into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range.  Overall, the
kinematic and thermodynamic environments would both suggest a
continuation of this storm cluster, despite failure of current CAM
runs to reflect already observed persistence of this convection. 
Assuming this counter-guidance expectation for convective
maintenance -- and possibly even some increase in coverage/intensity
-- potential for WW issuance is non-negligible this afternoon,
despite currently limited intensity and areal coverage of severe
risk.

..Goss/Guyer.. 06/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349676 34349626 34339510 34039437 33379413 32939441
            32789551 33459646 33809665 34349676