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Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...southwestern Nebraska...and
northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042017Z - 042145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Local severe risk is expected to gradually evolve as
storms increase across the northeastern Colorado vicinity over the
next 1-2 hours.  WW may be required.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loop, and latest radar imagery, shows
storms increasing in the vicinity of the border between northeastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle.  The storms are occurring
within a a general easterly low-level upslope flow regime, but
appear to be focused near the intersection of a west-to-east front
lying across northeastern Colorado and Nebraska, and a lee trough
near the Front Range.

Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer (upper 40s and
low 50s over the high Plains and into the low 60s farther
southeastward into Kansas) continues.  This has resulted in moderate
destabilization, with 1000 J/kg mixed layer CAPE over northeastern
Colorado increasing to 2500 J/kg southeastward into Kansas.  As
storms spread slowly east-southeastward (0-6km mean wind roughly 280
at 15 kt), and encounter increasingly more favorable instability,
expect intensity to likewise increase, aided by moderate 0-6km
shear.  Along with risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible -- particularly later on as some upscale growth of
convection likely occurs.  We will continue to monitor evolution of
the convection, along with the possibility of WW issuance within the
next 1-2 hours.

..Goss/Guyer.. 06/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40800440 41120315 40990195 40560102 39060049 38680160
            38550252 38590372 39340385 40160487 40800440