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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop over portions
of the northern/central Plains and parts of the Midwest on Sunday.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail should be the main hazards.

...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal flow will be maintained over much of the central CONUS
on Sunday. Multiple weak mid-level perturbations should move
eastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. A
slightly more discernible shortwave trough should move from the
central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains by Sunday afternoon.
Farther west, an upper low is forecast to remain off the coast of
British Columbia, while a shortwave trough with associated mid-level
jet advances eastward over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure
should extend over much of the length of the High Plains. Rich
low-level moisture will likely be in place to the south of a warm
front from NE/IA southward into KS/MO and parts of the southern
Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Midwest...
Mainly elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period
across parts of eastern KS and vicinity. As this activity spreads
eastward Sunday morning into western MO, it may pose an isolated
threat for hail and strong/gusty winds. Diurnal heating of the moist
low-level airmass present over much of the central Plains and
vicinity will likely foster the development of moderate to strong
instability by Sunday afternoon. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates
should also be in place over much of this region. Both low and
mid-level flow should remain fairly modest. But, west-northwesterly
winds are expected to gradually strengthen at upper levels. Veering
of the wind profile with height through the troposphere should also
contribute to around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. This will be
sufficient for thunderstorm organization, with a mix of multicells
and supercells possible.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity Sunday afternoon from parts of SD into
western NE/KS as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward
across the central High Plains. Initially discrete/supercellular
development should pose a threat for mainly large hail, with some
potential for very large (2+ inch diameter) hail given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast and presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates. With time, one or more clusters will probably develop Sunday
evening across NE/KS. This activity should pose more of a
severe/damaging wind threat across portions of central/eastern NE/KS
as it moves east-southeastward through Sunday night. Across IA,
there should be more of a conditional/isolated threat for severe
thunderstorms along/south of a warm front though the day.
Large-scale forcing appears more nebulous with eastward extent, and
overall coverage of convection is still rather uncertain. Finally,
even though low-level shear should remain fairly weak through Sunday
evening, a brief tornado or two may occur with both initial
supercell development and as convection grows upscale into clusters.

...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies...
A few thunderstorms capable of producing small hail and strong/gusty
winds may develop Sunday afternoon over parts of the interior
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as mid-level moisture
increases ahead of an upper-level trough. At this point, limited
heating and low-level moisture are forecast to keep instability
fairly weak. Confidence in organized severe thunderstorms remains
too low to include any severe probabilities for hail/wind at this
time.

..Gleason.. 06/04/2022