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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are most likely across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States, mainly between 2 to 8 PM EDT.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
An MCV over southern OH will shift east towards NJ/DE, aiding in
scattered thunderstorm development along the lee surface trough this
afternoon. Greatest boundary-layer heating will be focused from MD
south, with nearly full insolation underway across much of VA. Here,
surface temperatures will rapidly rise into the 80s and low 90s,
leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Poor 700-500 mb lapse rates
between 5-6 C/km as sampled by area 12Z soundings will curtail
buoyancy magnitude with MLCAPE holding around 1000-1500 J/kg.
Nevertheless, a belt of 35-45 kt mid-level westerlies should support
updraft rotation within short clusters that spread east towards the
coast through about sunset. While most measured surface wind gusts
should hold from 40-55 mph, a few may reach 60-65 mph. Scattered
tree damage appears probable, but marginally severe hail will also
be possible.

...Lower MS Valley...
A gradually decaying MCS in the Ark-La-Tex vicinity will likely
persist east-southeast across the Lower MS Valley and intensify this
afternoon. Boundary-layer heating will be subdued immediately ahead
of it owing to a broad cloud canopy. But large PW values of 1.6 to
1.9 inches in area 12Z soundings will support a plume of moderate
buoyancy with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Damaging wind potential will
be largely cold-pool driven given weak tropospheric flow fields
ahead of the MCS, and MCV-related flow enhancements confined in the
wake of the cold pool. Even though the MCS may only beco*e loosely
organized, sporadic wind damage is expected from strong to locally
severe wind gusts.

...NM to far southeast CO and far west TX...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from central
NM into far southeast CO this afternoon along the western periphery
of the southern Great Plains moisture plume that has spread across
the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Modest deep-layer shear, but steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will support a few cells capable of
isolated severe hail and wind. Convection will largely weaken as it
spreads east into the adjacent high plains where low-level stratus
will likely persist through much of today and maintain MLCIN. There
is some potential for a loosely organized cluster to emanate
east-southeast tonight across southeast NM towards parts of west TX
within the ribbon of greater elevated buoyancy in the Permian Basin.
As such, have expanded the cat 1-MRGL risk to account for these
scenarios.

..Grams/Mosier.. 06/02/2022