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Mesoscale Discussion 1012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central into north-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020452Z - 020615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for severe hail
and damaging winds over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is moving
eastward over parts of central TX at 0450Z. Although this activity
is occurring to the south of stronger mid-level westerly flow
present over much of the southern/central Plains, it will be
advancing into an area with a reservoir of greater buoyancy
characterized by around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. With a modest
south-southeasterly low-level jet also present over this region, it
appears plausible that this cluster could remain capable of
producing isolated strong to severe wind gusts as it continues
eastward over the next couple of hours. To the northeast of the
cluster, a supercell is ongoing over Shackelford County TX at 0450Z,
with a deviant southward motion off a weak surface boundary. Even
with deep-layer shear remaining modest, in the short term this
supercell should be capable of producing both isolated large hail
per recent MRMS MESH estimates, and severe winds based on latest
velocity data from KDYX. Given nebulous large-scale ascent present
over the southern Plains, it remains unclear whether any additional
severe convection will develop farther east along the surface
boundary towards the DFW Metroplex. Current expectations are for the
severe threat to remain fairly isolated for the next couple of
hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Hart.. 06/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   31419994 32029968 32399990 32859953 33159911 33249798
            33149730 32979679 32409680 32069730 31649864 31329970
            31419994