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Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Ohio into central
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

Valid 012304Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
continues.

SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms should persist
into this evening ahead of low-amplitude shortwave trough. Damaging
wind gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...As of 2255Z, regional radar analysis showed several
cluster of storms ongoing across WW301. The primary severe risk
appears to be located across the western half of the watch with a
more organized linear cluster developing across eastern OH into
western PA. As deeper ascent and stronger flow aloft from the
approaching shortwave move overhead, additional organization of the
line appears possible this evening. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE) ahead of the storms and increasing effective shear
(30-35 kt) should continue to support the cluster of storms as they
move eastward into west-central PA. The predominately linear mode
should favor a risk for damaging wind gusts, though some severe hail
will also be possible given favorable buoyancy for strong updrafts.

Farther to the west, several semi-organized clusters within central
OH may pose a localized risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
isolated hail this evening. Displaced from the stronger
shear/forcing, storm organization should remain limited, driven
largely by diurnal heating. Prior to nocturnal stabilization,
isolated severe chances may persist before a gradual decrease in
intensity expected later this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39908474 40348363 40788224 41278116 41718062 41838013
            41767940 41627888 41307846 40857845 40657880 40217947
            39968035 39818119 39758182 39698228 39448375 39438442
            39538480 39908474