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Mesoscale Discussion 0998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011221Z - 011415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible as
the thunderstorm cluster in the eastern TX continues eastward into
western OK.

DISCUSSION...Persistent warm-air advection has contributed to the
development of thunderstorms across portions of the eastern TX
Panhandle and western OK. Low-level stability remains in place, but
steep mid-level lapse rates still support moderate buoyancy. Recent
mesoanalysis estimates MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg across the region.
Mesoanalysis also shows an area of 7.5 to 8.0 deg C per km max lapse
rates (in the 2-6 km layer) downstream of the ongoing storms.

The thunderstorm moving through PPA currently appears to have a
stronger cold pool, as evidenced by its most eastward progression
over the last half hour or so. Expectation is for this storm to
continue eastward, with the aforementioned buoyancy supporting storm
persistence. While the buoyancy downstream should be sufficient for
storm maintenance, intensification into a more organized/severe
cluster will likely be tempered by the cloudy and cool conditions
downstream. Even so, isolated hail and damaging wind gust may still
occur and convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35240138 36050104 36480020 36449932 35939864 35169843
            34709879 34589981 34740071 35240138