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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridor for scattered severe thunderstorms during
the late afternoon and evening will be from the southeast Texas
Panhandle across western and northern Oklahoma into southeast
Kansas. A couple tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and very
large hail are all possible.

...Northwest TX to southeast KS...
A slowly southward-sinking surface cold front will beco*e
quasi-stationary and should be draped from southeast KS to the
southeast TX Panhandle by this afternoon. The dryline will extend
southwest and south from this frontal zone, struggling to mix east
of Far West TX. Surface temperatures will warm well through the 90s
across southwest OK and west TX in the warm/moist sector ahead of
the dryline and front. Late afternoon scattered thunderstorm
development is likely along both the front and dryline. 

While strong mid-level southwesterlies will be centered from
southeast CO to eastern NE, the southern influence of this jet will
yield favorable deep-layer shear with effective values around 35-45
kts. However, mid to upper-level winds will largely parallel the
surface front, suggesting that upscale growth into multiple clusters
which amalgamate into a broader MCS appears plausible. Some guidance
such as the 00Z HRW-ARW and HRW-NSSL indicate potential for a
forward-propagating MCS especially with convection off the dryline
merging with frontal convection near the southeast TX
Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. Still, 09Z RAP/06Z NAM guidance
suggest 850-mb negative theta-e advection this evening which would
likely curtail a more widespread severe wind event and yield a
decaying MCS tonight. 

...MO to Lower MI...
Ongoing convection from eastern KS into northern MO within a
low-level warm conveyor will likely persist through at least midday
and may not entirely decay this afternoon. The effects of this
early-day convection on the degree of downstream destabilization
renders below-average confidence in more specific convective
evolution during the afternoon and evening. Will maintain a broad
cat 2-SLGT risk as areas undisturbed by early-day convection will
warm through the 80s and should yield at least a moderately unstable
air mass. 50-65 mph wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two all
appear plausible.

...Southwest New England vicinity...
Confidence in sustained convective development is low, but a
conditionally favorable corridor exists for a few severe
thunderstorms along a backdoor cold front. If isolated thunderstorms
can develop, a threat for marginally severe hail and localized
damaging wind gusts may beco*e realized. 

...Central to eastern Gulf Coast...
Much of the region will lie within very weak effective shear around
10-15 kts. This suggests that organized severe thunderstorms are
highly unlikely, although pulse storms along sea breezes might
produce locally strong gusts in wet microbursts and small hail.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/31/2022