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Mesoscale Discussion 0975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast NE...southeast SD...far
southwest MN into far northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 301628Z - 301800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed soon across parts of
northeast NE into southeast SD and adjacent portions of far
southwest MN/northwest IA.

DISCUSSION...The effects of large-scale ascent now shifting east
across NE is apparent as convection is rapidly increasing near the
triple point into vicinity of the northeast NE/southeast SD border.
Some of this activity is still likely elevated, especially across
SD. However, a surface warm front will continue to lift northward
the next few hours, allowing for additional destabilization and
erosion of capping. Storms may initially pose mainly a hail threat,
but a quick transition toward damaging gust and tornado potential is
expected over the next few hours with east/northeast extent. 

Strong forcing amid supercell wind profiles will likely result in
mixed storm mode, with bowing line segments and semi-discrete
supercells likely. The KFSD VWP, which is located very near the
surface warm front, already shows an enlarged, clockwise curved
low-level hodograph with intense low-level shear/SRH present. This
will support low-level rotation within semi-discrete convection and
along any bowing/line segments. Tornadoes and damaging gusts will be
possible and a watch is likely soon.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   43229835 43779808 44649736 44729700 44729648 44719593
            44539554 44399546 44159530 43799529 42959582 42449622
            41809696 41679761 41629811 41719844 41929857 42599854
            43229835