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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN TO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with gusts of 60 to 85 mph, hail to
near baseball size, and a few tornadoes will occur this evening into
tonight from parts of west-central Nebraska northeastward into
southwestern and central Minnesota.

...Central and Northern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough embedded in
southwest mid-level flow over northeastern Colorado. This shortwave
trough will eject quickly northeastward across the central and
northern Plains this evening. Ahead of this feature, an arched line
of severe thunderstorms is ongoing across west-central Nebraska.
This line is expected to continue organizing over the next few hours
as it moves into a moderately unstable airmass across central and
northern Nebraska. MLCAPE in this area is in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg
range, with the instability axis extending northeastward into
southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. This
is the expected track of the developing MCS this evening.

In addition to a moderately unstable airmass, strong deep-layer
shear is present across much of the central and northern Plains. The
RAP has 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range along the forecast
track of the MCS. This co*bined with steep lapse rates near 8.0 C/km
will be favorable for supercell development. Supercells will produce
large hail, and hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible with the more intense updrafts. As the MCS moves
east-northeastward this evening, a 60 to 75 knot low-level jet will
enhance lift and create strong low-level shear. RAP forecast
soundings this evening suggests the strongest low-level shear will
be across northeastern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota and
southwest Minnesota, where 0-3 km storm relative helicities should
reach the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. This will make tornadoes possible
with supercells embedded in the line. The greatest threat will be
for wind damage associated with bowing segments. The line is
expected to accelerate to around 40 knots over the next few hours,
which will likely increase the wind damage potential. Several gusts
of over 65 knots will be possible with the more intense parts of the
linear MCS. 

In addition to the linear MCS, discrete storms may also develop this
evening out ahead of the line from eastern Nebraska
north-northeastward into southwest Minnesota. This cluster could
also contain supercells, associated with large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a few tornadoes. The severe threat should beco*e isolated
later tonight as the MCS reaches eastern Minnesota, where
instability is considerably weaker.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2022