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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, and possibly a few gusts
over 70 mph, will be possible this evening across parts of the
central and northern Plains. A few marginally severe wind gusts may
also occur across parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
northern High Plains. An arc of strong to severe thunderstorms is
ongoing ahead of the shortwave trough. The convection is located
along a corridor of instability, with the RAP having MLCAPE ranging
from near 2500 J/kg in western Nebraska to about 750 J/kg in western
South Dakota. At the surface, a 999 mb low is located in central
South Dakota. The airmass around the low is relatively dry with
surface dewpoints only in the 50s F. Surface-dewpoint spreads are
large, exceeding 30 degrees F in some areas. Forecast soundings
along the corridor of instability have nearly dry adiabatic lapse
rates in the low to mid-levels. This co*bined with 35 to 40 knots of
effective shear will support a threat for damaging wind gusts with
supercells and short line segments. The relatively dry air in the
boundary layer will make for efficient downdraft acceleration, with
a few gusts over 65 knots possible with the most intense cells. The
severe threat should persist through much of the evening, as the
storms move eastward into northeast Nebraska, eastern South Dakota,
and eventually into southwest Minnesota. The severe threat should
beco*e more isolated by late evening.

...Northwest Texas/Southwest Oklahoma...
A subtle shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over the southern Plains. A moist airmass is located ahead
of the trough from north Texas into Oklahoma, with a dryline
situated from far western Oklahoma southward into northwest Texas.
Thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline, with surface
dewpoints ahead of the storms in the low to mid 60s F.  This is
contributing to moderate instability, with MLCAPE estimated to be in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by the RAP. Surface-dewpoints spreads
are very large to along this corridor, exceeding 35 degrees F in
some areas. This thermodynamic environment, along with effective
shear of 30 to 40 knots, will be favorable for a severe threat this
evening. The nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates at low-levels will aid
downdraft acceleration, making damaging wind gusts possible with the
stronger cells. A couple of gusts greater than 65 mph will be
possible. The threat will beco*e marginal later this evening, as a
capping inversion beco*es reestablished.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2022