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Mesoscale Discussion 0943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...central and southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

Valid 272322Z - 280045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or
two continues with severe storms across parts of southern/central
VA.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, regional radar imagery showed
a cluster of severe storms including several supercells beco*ing
organized across parts of southern/central VA. Located within a
pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis, sufficient
buoyancy exists to support robust updrafts for a few hours as storms
track to the north and east. Co-located with the favorable buoyancy,
area VAD VWPs show 40-50 kt of effective shear supportive of
continued supercellular and short line segment modes being observed.
Damaging wind gusts and some hail remain likely with the strongest
storms as they are forecast to track northeastward into eastern VA
and southern MD area over the next several hours. Additionally,
subtle backing of the low-level southerly flow suggests somewhat
stronger low-level shear as storms move north and east. This is also
reflected by an increase in STP values to 1 on SPC mesoanalysis. A
tornado or two will remain possible with the more dominate
supercells inof the I-95 corridor over the next few hours.

..Lyons.. 05/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36977870 37327899 38397843 38837785 38987662 38757637
            38437639 38247637 37377671 36967690 36757727 36717783
            36767844 36777852 36937871 36977870