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Mesoscale Discussion 0935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...Eastern NC into southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 271444Z - 271615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes may increase with time into early afternoon. New watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a QLCS to the west, discrete convection is
gradually increasing across parts of eastern NC into southeast VA,
within a warming and destabilizing environment. MLCAPE is currently
in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, with some modest increase possible as
diurnal heating continues. 

Area VWPs show moderate low/midlevel flow across the region, with
sufficient effective shear for some organized storm structures. A
few marginal supercells may evolve with time within this
environment. Rather unidirectional flow is not overly supportive of
a tornado risk, but with rich low-level moisture in place and the
potentially favorable discrete/cellular mode, a couple of tornadoes
will be possible, in addition to a threat of locally damaging wind
gusts and marginal hail. Watch issuance is possible sometime later
this morning in order to address these threats.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34577811 36057740 36797713 37547662 37387594 35837588
            34617710 34357775 34577811