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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

The primary adjustments to the ongoing forecast were to expand the
Elevated area in more of southwestern Nebraska and extend the
Critical area farther north along the Front Range. There remains
some spatial and duration uncertainties, but strong post-frontal
downslope winds will promote a few hours of fire weather concerns in
these areas. Elevated highlights were also expanded in New
Mexico/Arizona where dry/windy conditions will increase large fire
potential at lower elevations. Gusty, dry winds in the Sacramento
Valley will occur early in the period. Winds should decrease and
humidity should increase during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 04/09/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022/

...Synopsis...
A low amplitude shortwave trough within broad southwesterly flow is
forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through Sunday.
Behind the trough, strengthening mid-level winds will overspread
much of the Southwest and southern Plains. Enhanced by the flow
aloft and a strong surface low across eastern KS, low-level winds
will beco*e quite strong within a very warm and dry airmass.
Volatile fuels and the dry/breezy conditions will support high-end
Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the southern Plains
Sunday. 

...Southern Plains...
As the main shortwave trough shifts farther east into the Plains
Sunday, mid-level flow will gradually veer to westerly ahead of an
increasingly strong Pacific jet. As the strong flow aloft
overspreads the Southwest and southern Plains Sunday morning,
west-southwesterly surface winds should rapidly increase. Model
soundings show deep vertical mixing within an extremely dry air mass
near a pronounced low-level thermal ridge. Afternoon RH values of
5-10% are excepted to be widespread across portions of NM west TX
and far western OK. Within this corridor, surface winds of 20-30 mph
are expected. Gusts of 35-40 mph also appear possible given the deep
vertical mixing and increasing flow aloft. With fuels in the 90th+
percentile co*mon across the Plains, widespread high-end critical
fire weather conditions are expected much of Sunday. A few hours of
locally extremely critical conditions may develop across eastern NM
where locally stronger winds appear more likely. Fire concerns may
linger after sunset as strong surface winds remain in place beneath
the low-level jet and humidity recoveries remain poor. 

...Central Plains....
Downslope winds in the wake of the departing trough and
strengthening westerly flow are expected to spil* out of the central
Rockies and onto the Plains. West to east surface pressure gradients
will support dry downslope flow and low RH despite falling
temperatures. Dry fuels suggest a few hours of Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible across the central High Plains Sunday. 

...Northern California...
As flow aloft behind the shortwave trough farther east begins to
weaken, a second deeper trough will begin to emerge across the
eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, stronger northwesterly flow
aloft will nose inland across the Sacramento Valley supporting gusty
northwesterly winds for a few hours Sunday. Rain chances will begin
to increase late Sunday as the approaching trough deepens and
onshore flow strengthens. Prior to that, a few hours of locally
Elevated fire conditions may develop within dry fuels across
portions of northern California.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...