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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday
evening/night from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into Missouri.
Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the western and central
CONUS early Sunday, with shortwave ridging across the MS Valley
upstream of another upper trough extending from Quebec off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Shortwave trough embedded within the western
upper trough is expected to progress eastward/northeastward through
the northern Plains and into the Upper MS Valley. An associated
surface low will begin the period over KS before quickly moving
northeastward ahead of its parent shortwave as an attendant cold
front sweeps southeastward through the central Plains and mid/lower
MO Valley. This cold front will interact with low-level moisture
returning northward to support thunderstorm development from the
central Plains eastward into the Mid MS Valley.

...Southeast KS across the Ozark Plateau into Mid MS Valley...
Warm temperatures aloft are expected to suppress deep convection
throughout most of the day. However, strong heating coupled with
persistent low-level moisture advection and modest ascent ahead the
front should erode this capping just as the front moves through.
Guidance suggests dewpoints will be into the upper 50s ahead of the
front during the late afternoon across far southeast KS into central
and southern MO. This low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support moderate buoyancy. As such, the current
expectation is for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop quickly
along the front as it moves into the region during the late
afternoon/early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
mid-level flow will support hail with initial updrafts. The
relatively dry mid-level suggests a largely outflow-dominant storm
structure and a transient to a more linear mode will likely occur
quickly. The main severe potential is expected with the development
along the front, but some risk will linger across these areas after
the initial frontal passage if elevated storms develop amid the
continued warm-air advection.  

...Central/Eastern OK...
A much more conditional severe risk exists across central and
eastern OK (as opposed to areas north and northeast) along the
dryline. Dewpoints will likely reach the upper 50s amid temperatures
in the low 80s, but these thermodynamic conditions will likely not
be sufficient to overco*e the anticipated convective inhibition
during the afternoon. Isolated convective initiation does appear
more probable (while still remaining low) later in the evening as
the dryline retreats westward and low-level moisture continues to
increase. Large hail and/or damaging wind gusts would be possible
with any storms that do develop along/ahead of the dryline and move
into eastern OK.

..Mosier.. 04/09/2022