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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

Elevated to locally critical conditions are ongoing within central
Kansas/Nebraska. Uncertainty remains as to how long critical
conditions will be sustained, but 2-4 hours is possible in some
locations. Elevated highlights have been extended into these areas.

..Wendt.. 04/09/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022/

...Synopsis...
In the mid levels, a large low/trough across the eastern CONUS will
continue to weaken as it shifts eastward toward the Atlantic Coast
today. In its wake, a second lower-amplitude trough and associated
jet across the Great Basin and western US will move eastward over
the Plains late today and tonight. Increasing ascent in the lee of
the Rockies will support robust surface cyclogenesis across the
central and southern High Plains. Southerly winds are forecast to
increase within the very dry airmass in place supporting increased
fire weather concerns. 

...High Plains...
As the shortwave trough ejects east through the central Rockies and
onto the Plains later in the evening, lee troughing and cyclogenesis
will enhance southwesterly surface flow across the Southwest and
High Plains. Widespread downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
from central NM, eastward across OK/TX and into southeastern CO.
Warm temperatures and adiabatic drying will further desiccate an
already dry airmass supporting widespread single digit humidity
values. In addition to the favorable meteorological overlap,
prevalent dry fuels with substantial recent fire activity will be in
place. Widespread Critical fire weather conditions are expected
through the day and into this evening. Some threat for fire activity
may linger overnight across the northern TX/OK Panhandles given poor
humidity recoveries and the strengthening lee low across eastern CO.


With increased forcing aloft ahead of a cold front associated with
the approaching shortwave trough, isolated thunderstorms may develop
across parts of the central Rockies this afternoon and evening. Area
averaged model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers
with PWATS generally less than 0.4 inches. The deep inverted-v
structure and dry lower atmosphere may support a few dry
thunderstorms across northern CO and central/eastern WY. Storm
coverage remains highly uncertain given the meager moisture and
buoyancy available. High elevation fuels also remain somewhat
unreceptive to starts given the early occurrence co*pared to
climatology. While no DryT area will be added, some risk for a few
dry strikes is possible within dry fuels at lower elevations. 

...Florida...
Lingering northwesterly flow behind a cold front and the upper
low/trough will support a few hours of gusty surface winds (10-15
mph) across the southern Florida Peninsula. Despite recent rainfall,
local fuels remain dry, (ERCs 95th+ percentile) and diurnal RH
minimums are forecast to fall below 35%. The co*bination of dry and
breezy conditions within receptive fuels will support Elevated fire
weather Conditions.

...Northern California...
As the shortwave trough over the Great Basin shifts eastward,
mid-level flow will gradually beco*e northwesterly ahead of an
upstream jet streak over the Pacific. The increasing northern
co*ponent in co*bination with a strong northerly pressure gradient
at the surface will support strong winds (15-25 mph) across the
Sacramento Valley. Downsloping within the post-frontal airmass will
support surface RH below 20% in co*bination with the strong surface
winds. While fuels are not overly dry, a few hours of elevated to
near Critical fire weather conditions appear likely.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...