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Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252229Z - 260030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated
hail/wind risk over the next 1-2 hours. This threat will likely
remain too limited spatially to warrant a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...GOES imagery over the past hour has shown a few cells
re-intensifying within a decaying MCS and developing ahead of the
line across southwest AL. This activity has generally been below
severe limits with only transient storm organization noted, and is
largely due to weak shear above the 2-3 km layer. However, a few
cells have shown brief MESH cores suggesting marginally severe to 1
inch hail is possible. Partly cloudy skies ahead of the line has
allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s, promoting modest
boundary-layer destabilization. MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg are
noted in recent mesoanalysis estimates, which is likely driving the
brief, but strong, initial updraft pulses. 30-40 mph veering flow
within the lowest 1 km (sampled by regional VWPs) will support the
potential for isolated damaging winds with any stronger downburst
and perhaps a weak/brief tornado with any more organized discrete
cells. These trends are expected to continue over the next couple of
hours across southwest AL as the line drifts east, though the
limited nature of the threat will likely preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Grams.. 05/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30458879 31038865 31878855 32278817 32538771 32608727
            32418684 31928655 31548651 30988659 30688664 30448674
            30288691 30178756 30098797 30078840 30048877 30048888
            30458879