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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AND MIDWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf
Coast into parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley, Southeast,
Midwest, and Ohio Valley.

...IL/IN/OH...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low over OK, with a
negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating northward across the mid
MS Valley.  Widespread dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s are present
south of diffuse warm front lifting northward across northern IL/IN,
with broken clouds allowing pockets of daytime heating and
destabilization.  However, mid-level lapse rates are not very steep,
limiting afternoon MLCAPE values to generally below 1500 J/kg.  The
co*bination of sufficient CAPE and modest large scale support will
likely lead to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon.
 Local VAD profiles and model forecasts show some increase in low
and mid level winds through the day, along with sufficient low-level
shear for a few rotating storms and bowing structures.  While the
parameters are subtle, there appears to be some risk of a few
tornadoes across this area later today, prompting the addition of a
SLGT risk.

...MS/LA/AL...
A line of strong/severe storms is tracking eastward across western
MS into a moist and unstable air mass.  This line may continue to
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. 
Please refer to WW #273 and recent MCD #912 for further details.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/25/2022