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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
AND NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from the
Texas Coastal Plain into parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley,
Southeast, Midwest, and Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Early Wednesday morning, a deepening upper low is evident over the
southern Plains in water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to
deepen further as it meanders east towards the mid-MS River Valley
through early Thursday. At the surface, a broad warm frontal zone
across the middle U.S. will consolidate and lift north through the
day, allowing for a poleward return of richer boundary-layer
moisture into the Midwest by late afternoon. An MCS, currently
draped from eastern to southern TX, will likely be near the TX and
LA Gulf coast by 12 UTC. This feature (or its residual outflow) is
forecast to drift into the northern Gulf Coast region by around peak
daytime heating and will act as an impetus for scattered
thunderstorm development. To the north across the mid-MS River
Valley and the Midwest, isolated thunderstorms are likely within a
broad warm advection regime ahead of the upper low. 

...Northern Gulf Coast...
The ongoing MCS across TX will likely reach the lower MS River
Valley region by around mid-day. This boundary will act as a focus
for thunderstorm initiation and/or re-intensification of residual
convection associated with the MCS. Increasing southeasterly
mid-level flow on the periphery of the upper-jet region will support
25-35 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear and the potential for organized
convection. However, the thermodynamic environment in place along
the northern Gulf Coast (and areas well inland) is uncertain.
Isolated to scattered storms associated with a weak mid-level wave
lifting through the MS River Valley during the morning and early
afternoon hours may weaken mid-level lapse rates via convective
overturning and mute diurnal destabilization. Ensemble probabilities
reflect this uncertainty with a limited signal for 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE
away from the immediate coast. An additional round of thunderstorms
associated with an approaching cold front appears probable during
the late afternoon/early evening across eastern TX into southern LA,
but buoyancy concerns limit confidence in the propensity for
severe/organized convection. 

...Midwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected within a broad zone
of ascent ahead of the deepening upper low and within a warm
advection regime. While the northward return of 60-65 F dewpoints
will aid in destabilization, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit
CAPE profiles. 40-50 knot mid/upper-level flow atop south to
southeasterly surface winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear
to co*pensate for the thermodynamic weakness to a degree; a few
cells may show periodic organization and pose a hail/damaging wind
threat. More backed low-level flow in the vicinity of the surface
low over the mid-MS River Valley and within the surface warm frontal
zone may provide enough effective helicity to support a brief/weak
tornado threat.

..Moore/Jewell.. 05/25/2022