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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will increase for parts of the Great Basin
Thursday afternoon. An approaching upper-level wave off the West
Coast will support pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
and Pacific Northwest. The low-level mass response will induce
south/southwesterly downslope flow off the Sierra Nevada into
northwestern and southern NV. Little moisture recovery into the
region is expected over the next 48 hours, and the co*bination of
downslope effects and deep boundary-layer mixing will exacerbate
low-level dryness. Forecast RH values in the 10-15% range appear
likely based on ensemble consensus, through some locations may see
RH values fall into the single digits. The modest nature of the
pressure falls will likely support 15-20 mph winds and several hours
of elevated fire weather conditions, though frequent gusts between
25-30 mph appear probable for southern NV where the strongest wind
signal is noted in ensemble guidance. Fuels across southern NV
remain critically dry based on latest ERC analyses and will support
the fire weather threat. Portions of northwest NV have seen only
5-10% of their normal rainfall over the past 30 days per AHPS
analyses, and reports from the local WFO indication that
lower-elevation grasses have cured. This fuel information, co*bined
with reasonably high confidence in elevated wind/RH conditions,
warrant an expansion of the risk area into northwest NV.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
The approach of the upper-level wave will also provide sufficient
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the greater
Pacific Northwest region. Forecast soundings from multiple models
hint that adequate mid-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse
rates may be in place across northern NV to support a few isolated
thunderstorms. PWAT values near 0.5 inches and a deep/dry sub-cloud
layer will support the potential for dry lightning. At this time the
greatest potential for thunderstorms only marginally overlaps
spatially with critically dry fuels, but this potential will be
monitored for northwest to central NV where fuels are receptive.

..Moore.. 05/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...