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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected from west-central Texas into the
ArkLaMiss region, some of which will produce hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes.

...TX...
Morning satellite imagery shows an upper low over southeast CO, with
a moderately strong mid-level jet extending across NM into west TX. 
Widespread thunderstorms have been affecting parts of OK and north
TX this morning, and have resulted in a pronounced outflow boundary
from near MAF-MWL-DUA. Strong heating and destabilization will occur
this afternoon to the south of the boundary, yielding MLCAPE values
of 2500+ J/kg.  This will set the stage for active convection this
evening over much of TX.

Storms are expected to develop in the mid-afternoon near the outflow
boundary/dryline triple-point near SJT.  These storms will likely be
supercellular with a potential for very large hail and perhaps a
tornado.  Other storms will form along/north of the outflow boundary
near the NM/TX border where strong heating is expected.  All of
these storms will progress eastward through the early evening and
slowly congeal into a large MCS.  It appears likely that a bowing
co*plex will eventually move across much of central TX with a
potential for scattered damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated
tornadoes. 

...Gulf Coast States...
A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is present today from
southeast TX into much of LA/MS/AL/GA.  12z model guidance suggest
that several clusters of thunderstorms will move across this region
this afternoon and evening, beneath modest southwesterly mid level
winds and relatively cool temperatures aloft.  It appears at this
time that these storms will be relatively disorganized.  However,
isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are expected with the more
intense cores through the afternoon and early evening.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/24/2022