Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST
TEXAS...

Some modification was made to the dry thunderstorm area in New
Mexico. Adjustments were made based on where precipitation has
fallen in the last 24 hours. Furthermore, forcing for ascent appears
sufficient for scattered storm coverage in parts of
east-central/southeast New Mexico. This should tend to increase the
probability of wetting rainfall. Areas within the higher
terrain/foothills will have the greater likelihood of drier storms.
Some adjustments were also made to the Sacramento Valley to better
align with fuel and ensemble guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast
remains on track without change.

..Wendt.. 05/24/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022/

...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across a broad swath
of the Four Corners region into southern New Mexico and far west
Texas. An upper-level jet continues to nose into the southern
Plains, deepening a surface low over southeast NM/southwest TX and
enhancing mid-level flow over the greater Southwest region where
fuels remain critically dry. This feature will also support
thunderstorm chances across parts of the southern High Plains this
afternoon, which will pose a threat for isolated dry thunderstorms. 

...Four Corners into Far West Texas...
Critical conditions remain likely as surface and boundary-layer
winds strengthen through the day. Despite modest overnight RH
recovery across parts of AZ and NM, drier conditions are noted
upstream in low-level water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. The
southeastward advection of this drier air mass coupled with diurnal
warming will result in widespread 5-15% RH values. Ensemble guidance
continues to show high probability for 20-25 mph sustained winds
from the Four Corners region into west TX. A few locations may see
periodic extremely critical conditions where RH values between 5-10%
are coincident with 30-40 mph wind gusts. While some spread in
deterministic solutions is noted, this potential may be maximized
across the Gila River region of southwest NM into far west TX.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Although some parts of northeast NM observed wetting rainfall over
the past 24 hours, most locations remain dry with receptive fuels. 
00 UTC observed soundings from ABQ and DEN sampled PWAT values less
than 0.6 inches from the periphery of the moist plume over the
southern Plains. Despite this limited moisture, mid-level lapse
rates remain sufficiently steep (near 8 C/km) to support 100-500
J/kg MUCAPE this afternoon given adequate boundary-layer heating.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon within an
upslope-flow regime across northeast NM into southern CO. Fast storm
motions coupled the limited available moisture will support a dry
thunderstorm threat.  

...Sacramento Valley...
Recent surface observations reveal an elongated surface trough
through central CA, resulting in northerly pressure-gradient winds
through the Sacramento Valley. Winds will increase again through the
afternoon, likely reaching top sustained speeds near 15 mph. Dry
conditions will persist and downslope warming/drying will foster
another day of 15-20% RH, resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...