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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and
Arklatex.

...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern
High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints mostly in the
60s F. A co*plex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward
across parts of east Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain early in the
period. If this co*plex materializes, it will have an impact on
destabilization later in the day. Model forecasts suggest that
moderate instability will develop by afternoon to the west of this
co*plex from southwest Texas northeastward into the Texas Hill
Country. Surface-based thunderstorm development appears most likely
on the northern edge of the moderate instability across parts of
central and north Texas. Additional storms may form on the cold
front. In addition to moderate instability, forecast soundings in
the eastern parts of the Texas Hill Country have 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 40 knot range and show steep low to mid-level lapse rates.
This should be favorable for severe storms with wind-damage and hail
potential. If an MCS can beco*e organized, then the severe threat
could persist into the early to mid evening.

..Broyles.. 05/22/2022