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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...Synopsis...
The surface low that is forecast to develop over the Four Corners
region on Sunday will shift into the southern/central High Plains by
Monday afternoon. This will strengthen westerly winds across the
Southwest, resulting in another day of fire weather concerns for a
region with receptive fuels. A few dry thunderstorms are possible
across southeast Colorado/eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon, but
overall confidence in the propensity for dry lightning strikes is
low.

...Southwest...
Fire activity in recent days verifies the critically dry fuels
depicted in fuel guidance across eastern AZ into NM. Dry conditions
already in place across this region will linger given little to no
moisture recovery over the next 48 hours. As the pressure gradient
tightens through the day Monday, sustained winds should increase to
15-20 mph, as suggested by ensemble guidance. While elevated
conditions appear likely, a few solutions hint that winds up to
20-25 mph (with gusts up to 35 mph) are possible across portions of
southwest to central NM. However, such conditions will most likely
occur in mainly desert terrain where fuel loading is low, and this
scenario is depicted by mainly warmer/drier members. Trends in
guidance and observations will be monitored, and a Critical risk
area may be needed for portions of southern NM if confidence in
widespread critical conditions increases.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm initiation is likely late Monday afternoon along the
southern Rockies from southeast CO into eastern NM within an upslope
flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest that early convective
activity may occur on the fringe of deeper boundary-layer moisture
where precipitable-water values are forecast to be near 0.5 to 0.75
inches. This suggests that initial thunderstorms may pose a threat
for a few dry lightning strikes. However, storm motions to the east
at around 30 knots should promote quick intensification within the
richer moisture, yielding increasing rainfall rates. This may limit
the duration and coverage of the dry-lightning threat, and precludes
any dry-lightning highlights at this time.

..Moore.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...