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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of the
Southwest and Four Corners region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
reveals a weak upper-level disturbance approaching Baja California.
This feature will meander east through the day, resulting in modest
surface pressure falls across the greater Four Corner region. The
tightening pressure gradient at the surface will result in
strengthening winds over a region with low relative humidity and dry
fuels.

...Eastern Arizona to New Mexico...
Latest guidance continues to show reasonably high probability of
sustained 20-25 mph winds across parts of eastern AZ into western NM
this afternoon. This region has seen slight drying over the past 24
hours with dewpoints largely in the low to mid 20s. Little to no
moisture recovery into the region will support another day of
widespread sub-15% RH. Recent fuel analyses as well as fire activity
over the past 24 hours indicate fuels are very receptive.
Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
expected across much of eastern AZ and western NM. Within the
Critical risk area, brief and localized high-end critical conditions
are possible as RH falls into the single digits with occasional wind
gusts between 25-30 mph.

...Southern Nevada to eastern Utah...
Southern NV will largely be on the periphery of the stronger
low-level mass response; however, ensemble guidance has shown
reasonably good agreement in sustained 15-20 mph winds this
afternoon with RH values falling to 10-15%. Ensemble guidance also
hints at an increasing probability for sustained 20 mph winds across
southern to southeastern UT. Fuels through this region are receptive
based on latest ERC analyses, warranting the introduction of a small
Critical risk area where confidence in the overlap of dry fuels, 20+
mph winds and sub-15% RH is highest.

...Southern to central High Plains...
A dry return flow regime is expected across the OK/TX Panhandles
into eastern CO/western KS this afternoon. The recent frontal
intrusion will limit any moisture return into the region this
afternoon as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. However, cooler
temperatures will generally limit RH reductions with only a few
warmer/drier solutions hinting at critical RH. Additionally, recent
precipitation across eastern CO will limit the spatial extent of the
concern. While localized elevated conditions are possible, these
factors preclude highlights at this time.

...Sacramento Valley...
Northerly down-valley flow is expected this afternoon, which will
help adiabatically dry and warm conditions through the Sacramento
Valley with RH values falling to near 15% by mid afternoon. However,
winds are expected to generally be weak with ensemble consensus
suggesting 10-15 mph winds are likely. A few locations may observe
periodic elevated conditions, but the overall threat remains too
limited for highlights.

..Moore.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...