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SPC MD 860

SPC MD 860

[html]MD 0860 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
       
MD 0860 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...western New York...far northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 212151Z - 212345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may yet develop through
early evening, with marginal hail or wind gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...An effective front co*prised of outflow and lake breeze
currently extends from far western NY into far northern NY, with a
building cumulus field across southwest NY. Storms are ongoing just
south of Lake Erie, and should move generally northeastward along
the front. Given substantial instability in place south of the NY
portion of the front, additional storms are expected. Given CAPE
profiles will steep lapse rates and at least marginal deep-layer
shear, a few severe cells may occur with wind and hail threat.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON   41997967 42437886 42947816 43087749 43197670 43227538
            42937515 42337536 41977580 41837707 41647885 41707942
            41797973 41997967


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Source: SPC MD 860 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0860.html)