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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both damaging
winds and large hail should develop Saturday afternoon and evening
from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley,
Midwest, and Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough will extend from eastern Canada
southwestward to the Plains and central Rockies on Saturday. This
feature is forecast to make only very slow eastward progress across
the central/eastern CONUS through the period. A surface cold front
will also extend southwestward from Quebec into the Great Lakes,
Midwest, and southern Plains. This front should move only slowly
east-southeastward across these regions through Saturday evening.
Rich low-level moisture characterized by low/mid 60s to low 70s
surface dewpoints are forecast to be in place along/ahead the length
of the front. Steepened mid-level lapse rates are also expected to
be in place over much of the warm sector, which will contribute to
the development of substantial instability by Saturday afternoon as
robust diurnal heating occurs ahead of the front.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the
period Saturday morning from parts of eastern OK into MO in
association with a modest southwesterly low-level jet and subtle
mid-level shortwave trough. Strong daytime heating of the moist
low-level airmass downstream of this morning activity will aid in
the development of moderate to strong instability in a fairly narrow
corridor extending from parts of the mid MS Valley northeastward
into the Midwest. Even though the stronger mid/upper-level flow
associated with the positively tilted upper trough will likely
remain displaced slightly to the west of the surface cold front,
there should still be enough veering and modest strengthening of the
wind profile with height to support some convective organization.
Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to form along the front
Saturday afternoon and spread east-northeastward with time. This
activity will pose a threat for damaging winds, and with the degree
of instability forecast and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates,
large hail may also occur.

...Northeast...
Moderate to strong instability will likely develop ahead of the
front through the day, and deep-layer shear may be a little stronger
co*pared to locations farther south. Accordingly, a mix of
multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells are forecast to
develop along/ahead of the front by Saturday afternoon. Both
damaging winds and large hail may occur with this activity as it
spreads eastward through the evening before eventually weakening as
it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across
New England. In addition, although low-level shear is not forecast
to be overly strong, it may still be sufficient for some updraft
rotation, and perhaps a brief tornado or two with any convection
that can remain at least semi-discrete.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Scattered convection will likely form both along the cold front in
AR and along the front/dryline intersection over parts of central TX
by Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely be
in place across these regions, but deep-layer shear should remain
rather weak. Still, modestly organized storms capable of producing
both large hail and damaging winds should spread eastward across
these regions Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia...
Cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating should support
moderate to strong instability across much of the Southeast on
Saturday. Even though winds aloft are forecast to remain generally
weak, pulse-like convection and perhaps a few multicells may be
capable of producing isolated hail and damaging winds through the
afternoon and early evening.

..Gleason.. 05/20/2022