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Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...far
west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191636Z - 191800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible with elevated this storms
late this morning into early afternoon. No watch is expected until
the primary activity develops later this afternoon, but trends will
be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Modest elevated destabilization will continue into
parts of Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin ahead of a warm front expected to
lift northward this afternoon. Given the mid-level flow observed on
the KFSD/KARX, around 40-50 kts of effective shear will support a
organized storms. Isolated large hail will be possible with these
elevated storms. Longevity of these storms is somewhat in question
given modest 850 mb warm advection that decreases to the east and
thermodynamic profiles will not significantly improve until much
later in the afternoon. No watch is expected until the primary
activity develops later this afternoon, but trends will be
monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42939246 43149377 43309390 43599408 43919389 44109366
            44219302 44029155 43819105 43359104 42959149 42889179
            42939246