SPC MD 826
[html]MD 0826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Areas affected...central into eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191505Z - 191730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may produce sporadic hail over the next several
hours, eventually affecting the St. Louis area and crossing into
Illinois.
DISCUSSION...Strong storms persist in the warm advection regime
ahead of a prominent MCV, with sporadic hail cores noted. This
leading cluster of storms is currently moving east/northeastward,
embedded within a larger-scale area of deep theta-e advection, which
in itself is also shifting northeast. Therefore, the trend of
pulsing hail cores should persist today, and may strengthen later
this afternoon as instability is maximized from heating. Steep lapse
rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to favor
hail cores, but a wind risk could develop out of this activity at
which time a watch would beco*e more likely.
..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38459227 38859208 39249159 39589037 39548967 39528913
39328846 38738799 37968796 37618805 37308838 37198953
37348999 37519067 37649122 37669162 37769202 38459227
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Source: SPC MD 826 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0826.html)
Topic: SPC MD 826 (Read 43 times)
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