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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

The Elevated area over parts of central/northwest TX was expanded
slightly northwestward toward the Red River. While sustained surface
winds should not be as strong as areas farther south, 10-15 percent
minimum RH and breezy southwesterly beco*ing northwesterly surface
winds will result in locally elevated conditions amid an ongoing
wildfire over the area. 

Across portions of the Northeast, sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds of 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts will develop
amid 20-30 percent minimum RH this afternoon. While fuels across the
region generally remain unsupportive of wildfire-spread owing to
recent rainfall, any pockets of dry fuels that overlap the
dry/breezy conditions could result in locally elevated fire-weather
conditions. 

Over parts of southern WY, 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty
westerly surface winds will support elevated conditions this
afternoon, though fuels are generally not receptive to
wildfire-spread.

For additional details, see the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 05/18/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022/

...Synopsis...
Flow will be weak across the Southwest today. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough will cross the southern High Plains and lead to
weak cyclogenesis across northwest Texas. This will result in a
strengthening low-level jet east of the surface low. Some deep
mixing is expected east of the dryline across central Texas beneath
this low-level jet. This will bring some of this stronger flow to
the surface in a region with 20 to 25 percent relative humidity. ERC
values are 90 to 95th percentile across this region and visible
satellite showed several smoke plumes this afternoon, indicating
fuels are sufficiently dry for burning. 

Dry conditions are expected in the Southeast (20 to 25 percent
relative humidity). However, winds are expected to stay light across
the region which should preclude any significant fire weather
concerns.

In addition, thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
central Rockies this afternoon. These thunderstorms will occur in a
low PWAT environment (0.6 to 0.75 inches) and in a region with very
dry fuels. Therefore, storms should be dry with the potential for
new lightning induced fire starts.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...