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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
NE...NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across a portion of the
central states through tonight. The area to be most likely impacted,
with potentially multiple rounds of severe weather, is focused on
parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri. A few tornadoes,
significant damaging winds, and very large hail are possible.

...Central States...
Low forecast confidence given potential for a variety of convective
scenarios playing out through the period, as illustrated by marked
spread among 12Z guidance. Given this uncertainty, have largely
maintained the cat 3-ENH risk area, which remains more closely
aligned with morning HRRR runs.

A co*plex, largely zonal flow regime with subtle embedded speed
maxima will affect the central CONUS. Primary feature of initial
interest is a low-amplitude upper trough near the CO/KS/NE border
area expected to move east to the IA/MO border area by early
evening. Elevated convection within a persistent low-level warm
theta-e advection regime has supported scattered storms mainly over
eastern NE. While pronounced insolation is occurring to the south of
this activity, surface dew points remain limited to the mid to upper
50s. Richer moisture characterized surface dew points greater than
65 F remains confined across south-central/southeast KS, given the
impacts of overnight convection and subsequent MCV over the Ozark
Plateau. But moisture recovery through both advection and
evapotranspiration will occur farther north. Some CAMs suggest that
just-in-time moisture return might support an emerging MCS emanating
out of the midday elevated clusters in eastern NE with flanking
southwest convective development near the NE/IA/MO/KS border
vicinity later this afternoon. If this occurs, it would likely
evolve southeast along the warm front.

In the wake of the initial low-amplitude upper trough, weak lee
cyclogenesis is expected over southwest KS with a dryline south, and
a strengthening frontal zone extending north-northeast into central
NE. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will generally be confined
to the post-frontal upslope regime over the central High Plains and
along the dryline in western KS during the late afternoon. Into
early evening, convection should increase along the frontal zone
into central NE. Largest buoyancy will be most probable across
eastern KS, initially displaced east-southeast of the expected
surface front/dryline development corridors. In addition, most
guidance indicates that belts of enhanced 500-250 mb westerlies will
generally be prominent along the KS/OK border latitude in the
southern stream and the NE/SD border latitude in the northern
stream. This further suggests that convective mode will likely be
quite messy, and within the exit region of a pronounced southern
Great Plains low-level jet, the scenario should foster relatively
quick upscale growth into multiple MCSs tonight. Primary threats
will initially be dominated by large hail and transition to mostly a
severe wind threat that gradually beco*es more isolated overnight.

..Grams/Wendt.. 05/17/2022