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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO EASTERN
NM...

The main change with this update was to expand the Critical area
westward across parts of the Permian Basin into eastern NM. As
strong midlevel flow (sampled by regional 12Z soundings) intercepts
the higher terrain over eastern NM, deep boundary-layer mixing into
the strong flow aloft will support 15-20 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 5-10
percent minimum RH. These conditions, coupled with critical to
near-record dry fuels warrants the expansion of the Critical area.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Weinman.. 05/17/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022/

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Southwest today.
This will lead to increasing mid-level flow across New Mexico and
the southern High Plains. In addition, lee cyclogenesis is expected
which will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the
Southwest and southern High Plains. As a result, breezy conditions
will develop amid 5 to 13 percent relative humidity. At this time,
the strongest winds are forecast east of the dryline beneath a
strengthening low-level jet. A dry environment with deep mixing is
expected immediately east of the dryline which should allow some of
this stronger flow to mix to the surface. 

In addition, some dry and breezy conditions are expected in northern
and northeastern Montana. While fuels remain mostly unreceptive
across Montana, ERC values are nearing or exceeding the 90th
percentile in portions of north-central Montana. Therefore, a small
elevated delineation has been added across this area for this small
region of more favorable fuels.

Thunderstorms are expected to form in the vicinity of a dryline
across west Texas into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this afternoon.
These storms will develop in an airmass with PWAT around 0.6 to 0.75
inches. Therefore, these storms should be drier, especially
initially, with the threat for lightning induced fire starts.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...