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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...AND FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, especially
across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and the Colorado Front Range
into the south-central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A broad zone of west-northwesterly flow aloft is expected to cover
the northern two-thirds of the CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded
shortwave trough is forecast to move from the OH Valley into
portions of the Mid Atlantic, while another shortwave trough is
forecast to move across the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes
regions. One weak surface low may move along a front across the OH
Valley, while another weak surface low is forecast to develop over
the southern Plains. 

...Mid MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley...
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period across portions of the lower OH Valley, in association with
the eastward-moving shortwave trough. Diurnal destabilization may
support some strengthening of morning convection as it moves
eastward, and also redevelopment in the wake of the early-day storms
along a weak surface boundary. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly
flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection, and the strongest storms will pose a threat of hail and
locally damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of
early-day convection and the coverage of redevelopment in its wake
precludes higher severe probabilities at this time.

...c* Front Range into the south-central High Plains...
Modest low-level moisture return within a weak upslope-flow regime
will support weak-to-moderate destabilization from the CO Front
Range into parts of the south-central High Plains by late afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the higher terrain
and spread eastward with time into the south-central High Plains,
with deep-layer shear sufficient to support multicell clusters and
perhaps a couple of supercells, with an attendant risk of hail and
locally severe gusts. 

...Central/northern MN into northwest WI...
Low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited across
Minnesota in advance of a cold front. However, steep midlevel lapse
rates, cool temperatures aloft, and increasing ascent associated
with an approaching shortwave trough will support widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Small hail and gusty
winds will be possible, though uncertainty regarding the magnitude
of buoyancy precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 05/17/2022